Inter league play finishes this weekend, and we’re back to regular old boring league play this Tuesday (note the sarcasm). Let’s look at some of the more intriguing (and possibly profitable) match ups.
St. Louis at Milwaukee. Didn’t seem so long ago the Cardinals had a good hold on the NL Central, and any and all competitors were going to be looking up at them the majority of the season. Well that changed quickly, and now the Brew crew is perched atop the still-competitive division while the Cards are in a dogfight for second place with the pesky Cubs. Neither Wainwright nor Suppan (the starting pitchers) have amazing numbers this year, but both have sub-4 ERA’s and can get the job done. In this regard, the MLB betting pitching game on paper is an even match. The Brewers, despite their recent momentum are still only 10th in the NL in batting average and a horrible 15th in stolen bases. The Cards fare a little better in both categories, but neither team is known for its offensive power nor it’s incredible speed. So where will this game be won? Probably depends on whether Pujols is in the lineup. Pick ‘em line: -110 for each team. I’ll take the Brewers because they’re playing better right now, but if the over/under is 8 or less, I’d take the over as a safer bet than the line.
Florida at Philadelphia. Speaking of not so long ago…once upon a 2009, the Marlins were 11-1. Boy did that turn around quick. The fish are lingering in sub-.500 category and seem to have completely lost their early-season spark. The Phillies have returned to first-place form, and are building momentum each week. Of the two World Series teams from a year ago, the Phillies are looking like the one that deserved to be there right now. Joe Blanton and his 6.8 ERA stumble to the mound for the world champs, who will face a currently undecided pitcher (the Marlins rotation is in such disorder, though, this might not be a bad thing, especially since they’re not exactly matching up against an ace from the opponent). These are also teams headed in different directions, not only sporting different records. Florida can’t buy a win, and the Phillies are above .500 in their last dozen games. That’ll probably take care of the Marlins, but Philly will have to improve on their 15th in the NL ERA if they’re going to make anyone scared the rest of the season and beyond. The line will make it a tough pick, though, as I expect the Phillies to be a sizable favorite going in despite Blanton on the mound. Phillies -185, Marlins +155. Depending on who Florida actually throws, I might be inclined to give the newcomer a chance and take the Marlins in an upset.
The NBA playoffs have offered up a heck of a lot of excitement so far. An historic 7-game basketball betting series, some controversial comments from one wacky owner and some bumping and bruising as only the NBA Playoffs can. So why has Lebron James not been a bigger story yet?
The answer is obvious, the Cavs are cruised through to the Eastern Conference Finals. I wouldn’t say “under the radar,” since James is never under the radar, but they haven’t exactly grabbed the headlines. Don’t let that deter you from believing the Cavs will win the title this year. You should’ve been betting on it a few months ago, and you still should be betting on it now. It’s early still, but let’s look at the possible lines for each step of the way for them before they cross the finish line.
Cavs vs. Celtics: Yes, I’m calling the Celtics, as much as I want the Magic to drop the team that finished off my Bulls, Orlando had their chance and couldn’t keep the champs down. So now the edge lies with Boston to move on to face the Cleveland LeBrons. I think the home team will be favored all the way through. As impressive as the Cavs have been so far, they’ve largely been untested, so it waits to be seen how LeBron can handle a really hostile road situation - as the favorite. Cavs will be 5 or 6 point favorites at home. Celts will be 3 or 4 point favorites at home. I’d peg Game 4 as the upset game. With the Cavs going back to Cleveland up 3-1 in the series.
NBA Finals: Cavs vs. Denver/Lakers. That West coast finals series is going to be tougher to call, especially with how exciting Denver is playing these days. I think the Lakers will finally brush aside Houston and we’ll see a #1, #2 seed match up in both conferences. If the Cavs get the Lakers (the match up everyone is drooling over), the home team will be more heavily favored in each game, probably by 7 points - at least in the early games. I still lean toward the Lakers’ firepower and depth over Cleveland, but the Cavs have proven so far they have everything they need to win the title. Still, if the line is that large, I’d bet the road teams for games 4-6, by then both teams will be traveled and worn down a little, and I think we’ll be in for some close ones. If, by chance, the Cavs face the Nuggets, I think the Cavs will be favored the whole way through. The games might be closer than you think, though, so I’d be hesitant to jump on the Cavs bandwagon for gambling if the line is like 8-9 points at home. That’d be generous, maybe a little too much so. If the Nuggets somehow make it past LA, they’ll have earned their spot, as well.
Among the monster pre-flop combinations that get your adrenaline pumping, there are some trouble hands to watch out for. These won’t be potential issues all the time, but there are situations where even the most enticing hands can be a recipe for disaster.
The first thin you need to do is Download PokerStars.com from the official website. This first hand is two cards making up what will be the inside of a straight, or at least one of the two to the inside, and it’s not the highest possible straight out there. This is incredibly dangerous when there’s more than six people at the table, as well. Take J, 8 for example. If the betting is light pre-flop, you’re likely going to go in with this hand to see what you can pull later. If you hit a straight, say Q, 10, 9…you think you’ve got it made and will bet accordingly. However, if an opponent played K, J before the flop, you’re going to be taken to the cleaners. You’ll think the entire time the other guy is betting up two pair or maybe a set, and you’ll miss the trap until it’s way too late. This is the kind of hand that can put you out of a tournament.
OK, how about A, Q? This has to be one of the strongest hands to bet early, right? Not so fast, and you know what’s coming. Exactly, if you take this up against A, K, there’s a 66 percent chance you’ll get drubbed through the hand and lose it in the end. The odds say it’s 3:1 against you. It’s one of the hardest hands to fold, but if you get that sense that you better not take the chance during high pre-flop betting, then don’t take that chance.
One more for now, but there are plenty of others to explore in future poker articles. J, J. This hand is almost worse than a low pair if for no other reason than how much it hurts when you’re convinced you have to fold it. If you are holding this hand on PokerStar.com and someone bets up against you, either they’re bluffing (which you can handle) or one of two other less than desirable results – A, K or A, Q….which means you’re only going to beat that person just over the majority of the time (not exactly odds to go all-in against) or they have a higher pair, which puts you at a 4:1 underdog and likely wishing you’d folded when you had the chance.
